Welcome to the UK Covid-19 Forecasting Challenge evaluation board!

Below you find a visualisation of all forecasts made for the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge as well as an evaluation of the forecasts.

If you want to learn more about the crowd forecasting challenge and how to participate, visit crowdforecastr.org


Visualisation of the combined crowd forecast

The plot shows the combined forecast of all participants. Forecasts are combined by taking the average of all predictions. The date of the tab marks the date on which a forecast was made.

2021-08-09

Cases

Deaths

2021-08-02

Cases

Deaths

2021-07-26

Cases

Deaths

2021-07-19

Cases

Deaths

2021-07-12

Cases

Deaths

2021-07-05

Cases

Deaths

2021-06-28

Cases

Deaths

2021-06-21

Cases

Deaths

2021-06-14

Cases

Deaths

2021-06-07

Cases

Deaths

2021-05-31

Cases

Deaths

2021-05-24

Cases

Deaths


Forecast visualisation

Visualisation of individual forecasts. The date of the tab marks the date on which a forecast was made.

2021-08-09

Cases

Deaths

2021-08-02

Cases

Deaths

2021-07-26

Cases

Deaths

2021-07-19

Cases

Deaths

2021-07-12

Cases

Deaths

2021-07-05

Cases

Deaths

2021-06-28

Cases

Deaths

2021-06-21

Cases

Deaths

2021-06-14

Cases

Deaths

2021-06-07

Cases

Deaths

2021-05-31

Cases

Deaths

2021-05-24

Cases

Deaths


Leaderboard


Detailed forecast scores

Scores separated by target and forecast horizon.

Cases

1 week ahead horizon

2 weeks ahead horizon

3 weeks ahead horizon

4 weeks ahead horizon

Deaths

1 week ahead horizon

2 weeks ahead horizon

3 weeks ahead horizon

4 weeks ahead horizon


Evaluation metrics


Evolution of scores over time

Visualisation of the weighted interval score over time. In addition, the components of the interval score, sharpness (how narrow are forecasts - smaller is better), and penalties for underprediction and overprediction are shown. Scores are again separated by forecast horizon

Number of participants

##     location_name target_variable       sd  mean min max median
## 1: United Kingdom        inc case 11.18440 22.00  10  54     21
## 2: United Kingdom       inc death 10.05553 20.25  10  49     19